BEEF

The market is steady to firmer. Total beef production for last week was up 2.1% versus the prior week and up 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 2.6% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 578,000, as compared to 584,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 5.52 million head, which is down 6.9% from last year. Live weights for last week were down 3 lb. versus the prior week and up 48 lbs. from the same week last year. Live cattle futures for April, June, and August rose slightly due to the limited amount of cattle in the feedyards. Supply continues to be tight as some packers have transitioned to a 4-day work week. Order fill rates are being challenged with multiple shortages being reported. Recent tariff news has the industry in a wait-and-see approach on what develops. Beef demand for the first two weeks of March is moderate at best. The seasonal lift expected this time of year has been stifled with inconsistent weather and higher retail prices. Current demand is clearing supply adequately and shortages may continue to be a problem. Due to tight supply and relatively high costs for beef, wholesale prices continue to be unsettled on choice and select grades. Market levels have been up and down over the past few weeks.

Grinds – The market is steady. Demand has slowed down as retail and foodservice prices have risen. On the flip side, burger demand tends to increase as the warmer weather moves in. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds have been up and down on a daily basis

Loins – The market is steady to firmer. Retail and foodservice volume has firmed up in combination with a finite supply. Supply varies by packer on choice and select grades. Market levels have risen slightly.

Rounds – The market is steady to firmer. Volume on inside cuts has been up and down due to irregular retail promotion cycles. Supply on insides and denuded product varies by packer. Market values have firmed up recently.

Chucks – The market is mixed. As pricing pressure increased, retail demand fell off in February and is showing some improvement in March. Some packers are having to use chucks and clods to supply grinding operations. Supply varies by packer and available grade. Trade levels on chucks, clods, and XT product have firmed up over the last week.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Warmer weather and outdoor grilling trends are starting to kick in. Demand is slowly improving, and supply is getting squeezed. Availability is extremely tight. Market levels are showing strength even during the Lenten season.

PORK

The market is mixed. Total pork production for last week was down 5.0% versus the prior week and down 0.2% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,418,000 compared to 2,440,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were down 1 lb. compared to the prior week and up 1 lb. versus the same week last year. Current demand is moderate to light which is expected during the Lenten season. The pork cutout showed some weakness around the start of Lent but has stabilized over the last week. Retail demand on loins, boneless loins, and butts is moderate due to feature activity.  With the port strike averted; export demand has resumed to traditional levels, but tariff issues have industry players somewhat concerned. With the United States exporting about 25% of its pork production, potential tariffs will be watched by suppliers and foreign countries alike. Based on the most recent WASDE report, supply for 2025 is expected to rise 1.9% due to breeding efficiency. Lean hog futures for April are mostly flat but June climbed to a two-week high. Market values on loins, butts, and ribs are holding within established ranges with better outdoor weather and consumer demand.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail is moderate while foodservice is starting to pick up with QSR sandwich specials. Supply is available but not in excess. Primal belly values are trading in established ranges.

Hams – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand is good due to the upcoming Easter Holiday, but further processor business is starting to slow down a bit. Future export demand is unclear as Mexico may be announce retaliatory tariffs. Supply is available. Market levels on green hams are being pressured lower.

Loins – The market is steady to firmer. Demand for bone-in product is strong due to retail features and some outdoor grilling. Boneless loin volume is active in light of tariffs changing the trading landscape. Supply is available. Market on bone-in and boneless loins has strong undertones.

Butts – The market is steady to weaker. Bone-in demand from retail and foodservice is good for this time of year. Export demand from South Korea continues to be steadfast. Trade levels are showing some weakness but tend to firm up at the end of Lent.

Ribs – The market is unsettled. March demand is meeting industry expectations. Freezer supplies for the summer grilling season are reported to be adequate. Supply varies by packer and plant. The market on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs is holding within established ranges.

CHICKEN

The market is firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 3/8/2025 was 167,393,000 as compared to 164,520,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.43 lbs. as compared to 6.43 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand patterns for chicken continues to impress. As costs for other proteins rise higher, retailers and foodservice operators continue to use poultry as a feature option. Export demand to the Pacific Rim is moderate and meets industry expectations. The categories of breast meat, tenderloins, and thigh meat continue to show vibrant strength. Conversely, wing demand for March Madness has been extremely soft and the category has experienced a downward correction. The supply side is posting consistent slaughter numbers, but hatchability continues to be a problem. With instances of HPAI being reported in the news, some export restrictions are being implemented. Demand continues to be robust and market levels are being tested higher across many categories.

WOGS – The market is steady to firmer. Retail deli and fast-food demand is the beneficiary of warmer weather and consumer demand is on the rise. Supply is tight on the premium sizes as well as cutting stock WOGS. Market levels are being pressured higher.

Tenders – The market is steady. Foodservice and QSR business have picked up over the last month. With added demand, custom portioning is also on the rise. Supply is tight on select and jumbo product. The market on jumbo and select tenders is firm.

Boneless Breast – The market is firmer. Retail and foodservice demand continues to be robust. With higher price points on competing proteins, boneless breasts have become the go-to feature item. Supply has tightened up quickly. The market on all sizes has been moving higher on a daily basis.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to firmer. Domestic demand for leg quarters and thigh meat is moderate to good. Export business on whole legs is a full steady. Supply is available and varies by plant. Market levels on back-half parts are flat while boneless thigh meat is moving higher.

Wings – The market is weaker. March Madness demand has been extremely soft and is underperforming industry expectations. Higher menu costs have limited overall volume in the foodservice channel. Supply is in excess on all sizes. The market on all sizes is moving lower.

TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 3/8/2025 was 3,369,000 as compared to 3,764,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 31.94 lbs. as compared to 32.01 lbs. for the same week last year. The key driver to the turkey category revolves around weekly supply and reduced slaughter. Recent slaughter data shows the number of turkeys processed year to date is down 10% from last year, which was already at an all-time record low. With recent announcements of plant closures, current and future supply is tight. Due to limited supply, asking prices are on the rise and shortages are becoming more common. Demand for parts is moderate and business on boneless breast meat is extremely strong. Market levels continue to move higher on boneless meat and parts. 

Whole Birds – The market is steady to firmer. More and more booking orders are getting finalized. Available supply has gone from excess to almost sold out in the last 60 days. Market levels are being pushed higher at the current time.

Breast Meat – The market is firmer. Seasonal demand from retail deli and foodservice is in full swing. Fresh and frozen supply is scarce on the spot market. Market levels continue to be tested higher

Wings – The market is steady to firmer. Export business on whole wings is fair and domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply has gotten squeezed by limited slaughter numbers. The market Tom size wings has been moving higher.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is firmer. Export business for drums is moderate to good. Demand for thigh meat is well supported by retail, foodservice, and further processing. Supply is tight on parts and thigh meat. The market on drums and thigh meat is being pressured higher.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is unsettled. There are reports of downward pressure and price reductions, though current market ranges hold steady.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are holding firm. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone. Upward movement has been reported.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady and mostly unchanged. The bulk of trading continues to occur within previously established levels.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. Wild salmon demand is moderate to firmer. West coast whole fish remains unquoted due to inadequate supply. Europe is reporting a weaker market. Demand is moderate to fair, while supply ranges from adequate to fully adequate. Chilean whole fish market is firmer. Supply is barely adequate with moderate demand

Cod – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand has improved, while supplies have tightened.

Pollock – The market is steady. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is unsettled while maintaining a firm undertone.

Swai – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is firmer.  Both the CME Block & Barrel market moved firmer as the week progressed. The CME Block market moved firmer than the prior week. The CME Barrel market trended weaker than the prior week.

Special Note: The USDA has released their final ruling announcing changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Order System. As part of these changes, the Barrel Market will be eliminated from pricing effective June 1st, 2025. The final rule eliminates barrels from the Dairy Products Mandatory Reporting Program and will rely solely on the 40-pound block cheddar cheese price to determine the monthly average cheese prices.

Cheese production is trending from steady to stronger across the U.S. In the East, cheese plants are noted to receive plenty of milk for cheese production. Contacts in the industry say milk volumes are higher than anticipated. Cheese inventories in the region are sufficient to meet most buying needs. In the Central region, slower customer activity has been reported over the past week. Milk availability in the region is in balance for production needs. According to the USDA’s latest report, cheese markets are under notable bearish pressure this week as dairy markets face unassured consumer demand. In the West, demand for Class III milk for cheese manufacturers is strong. Milk production in the region is seasonally strengthening and in line with manufacturing needs. Overall, cheese demand is steady and in good balance with supply, according to the USDA. Domestic demand for cheese varies from lighter to steady. Foodservice demand is weaker as consumers pull back on spending due to inflation and threats of tariffs. Retail demand for cheese is reported to be strong. Demand from international buyers is reported to be mixed. Unsettled trade factors are causing hesitation for some sellers or international buyers. U.S. cheese exports were reported to be up 6.4% in January and 21.9% up year over year.

Milk production in Europe is generally trending as steady to stronger. Some handlers note concerns on herd health that has contributed to below expected outputs in some regions. Contacts in the industry note steady demand from both the retail and foodservice sectors for foreign type cheeses. Cheese manufacturing in Europe varies from steady to stronger. Export demand is reported to be mixed. According to the USDA’s latest report, recent sales has leaned heavily to the domestic side though some have noted demand from international buyers.

BUTTER

The market is firmer. The butter market moved firmer as the week progressed and trended firmer than the prior week. Cream remains readily available across most of the nation. In the East, affordable cream supplies are allowing butter makers to run active churning schedules. Butter inventories in the region are said to be growing in line with the heavy production taking place. In the Central region, butter traders note recent demand upticks may slow down as market prices continue to hit rocky patches, according to the USDA’s latest report. Churning in the region is reported to be very active. In the West, cream volumes remain readily available. Several spot cream loads have made their way into butter processing facilities. Butter churns in the region are at or near capacity and working to build stock for seasonal demands later in the year.  As Class II & III manufacturing starts to ramp up seasonally, cream availability will tighten. Domestic retail butter demand is mixed. Foodservice demand for better is noted to be flat to steady.  Some contacts have noted an increase in butter demand from retail shoppers. The demand for bulk butter is generally steady. Demand is reported to be steady domestically. Demand from international buyers is reported to be very strong over most of Q1 so far. Domestic prices continue to be competitive for international buyers.

EGGS

The market is weaker. Retail demand is weaker. High shelf prices and purchasing restrictions are heavily influencing consumer purchasing behavior, which has led to a pullback in retailer needs. Consumers are responding by buying smaller packs and using eggs more sparingly. Like retail, demand in the distribution and food service channels is weaker. There are reports of many smaller operators cutting back on supply until the market has a more stable undertone. Demand from Canada has tapered off. 

Market levels are moving lower for medium and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 5.2% and breaking stock inventory up 3.0% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is weaker. Liquid white egg prices are declining due to surplus supply caused by strong demand for yolks in food manufacturing, while yolk and dried egg prices remain stable.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Milk production across the nation is seeing strengthening trends as spring flush approaches. Dairy contacts in the East note milk production are seasonally increasing. In the Northeast, milk intakes are reported to be higher than anticipated. Milk production in the mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida is all trending steady to higher. Class I bottling demand is pulling heavily at milk supplies in the region. In the Southeast, strong bottling and hefty milkfat is creating a surplus of cream in the region. Dairy farmers in the Central region note signs of early spring flush. Varying weather patterns in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains are contributing to milkfat and protein component levels moving lower. According to the USDA’s latest report, a regular topic is new cheese plants coming online in the Central region. Contacts expect availability of milk outputs in the regions of these new plant locations will remain somewhat consistent. In the West, week-over-week milk production is said to be increasing. Manufacturers note milk volumes are sufficient for production needs. In the Pacific Northwest, week over week production is noted as steady or strengthening. Cream volumes continue to be readily available in the region. Overall, milk intakes are meeting processor expectations are mixed. Demand from all Classes is reported as steady. Cream cheese and ice cream manufacturers are slowly increasing their intakes. Butter makers are running busy production schedules. Condensed skim milk availability is improving while demand for skim milk is steady.

OIL

Soy Oil

Strong US weekly exports are helping soybeans to recover this week. Meal is trending higher which is moving soybean oil into slightly negative territory.   

US weekly exports sales came in higher than the range of expectations for soybeans and oil, but lower than the range of expectations for meal.

Canola Oil

The market is weaker.  Stats Canada is anticipating a reduction in canola seed sowings this upcoming planting season moving in line with the 5-year average.  Tariff rhetoric across multiple geographies has caused price decreases in canola in recent weeks.

Palm Oil

The market is firmer than predicted this week.   Palm oil demand was quiet, as the market seeks clarity around the upcoming Indonesian levy and keeps an eye on rainfall in Malaysia.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Rising costs of cocoa are expected to increase the financial burden on chocolate producers and consumers. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry as seen in crop diseases and low wages paid to farmers. Cocoa trees take years to mature and produce pods, therefore recently planted crops will take years to produce a yield. Potential price volatility is expected due to financial pressure on this market. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

COCONUT

The coconut market is unsettled. Demand from China, Europe and the United States continues to rise. Additionally, packaging costs and operational disruptions have contributed to record-level prices. Any impact from tariffs could further these issues. Price increases on coconuts and any products produced using coconuts should be expected throughout the year.

COFFEE

The coffee market is unsettled. Concerns over tariffs could result in price increases this year. Columbia is the third largest coffee-producing country in the world behind Brazil and Vietnam. Coffee prices are expected to continue soaring due to adverse weather in both Brazil and Vietnam. Drought and higher temperatures in Brazil during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. Price increases on coffee should be expected to continue throughout 2025.

DISPOSABLES

The market is unsettled. Many suppliers are taking price increases due to imposing tariffs on imports from the countries of Mexico, Canada, and China. China is expanding their presence in the category and is a leading world exporter of aluminum and plastics. There is potential that vendors outside of China will advantageously begin raising their prices in response to this action. Recent pricing notifications are being implemented for March 2025 with more upcoming in April and May. Key categories that are being affected by these pricing actions are aluminum foil products, vinyl gloves, polypropylene gloves, polypropylene bags, and apparel.

IMPORTS

Mandarin Oranges

China’s mandarin season reported low crop yields due to high temperatures and drought. Many growers are reporting sunburning, thick skins, and larger sizes which are not suitable for canning.

Turkish mandarin production is down 25% in 2024 compared to 2023.

Spanish growers are reporting the crop has not been adversely affected by the recent flooding in Valencia.

Pricing has firmed up in all 3 markets due to the reduction in raw material.

SUGAR

The sugar market is mixed. According to the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the 2024/25 US sugar supply was decreased from the prior month. Decreased imports are offsetting the increases in cane sugar production.

Cane sugar production in the U.S. is down from last month as the reduction in Florida outweighs the Louisiana increases.

Beet sugar production is raised and could reach a new record level if all indicators stay at the current level. Beet Sucrose Recovery has been increased meaning a higher possible yield than previously forecasted.

Mexico’s 2024/25 sugar production is lowered by 235,000 metric tons. This reduction is primarily based on the lower estimate for sucrose recovery and lower area harvested derived from statistical analysis using data published by Mexico’s National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugarcane.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. Wheat futures fell lower this week due to the implementation of tariffs. China has imposed a 15% retaliatory tariff on U.S. wheat, though the implications of this are limited due to their low export sales this year. However, tariffs from Mexico could pose a much larger threat to the wheat market as they are the primary importer of U.S. wheat. Markets were pressured last week because of the likelihood of reduced export demand for U.S. agricultural products. Recent precipitation has hit the eastern half of the Plains with more expected in the forecast. Moderate drought has plagued certain growing regions in the Central and Northern Plains regions and is expected to continue that pattern through the end of March. According to the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for slightly higher domestic use and lower ending stocks. U.S. consumer demand for food products made from wheat flour is relatively stable. The global wheat outlook for 2024/25 is for slightly larger supplies and higher consumption. China’s sluggish import pace of wheat is expected to be the largest import change for the year globally. This decrease is partly offset by increases that are expected for Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending March 7, 2025**