BEEF

The market is mixed. Total beef production for last week was down 1.1% versus the prior week and up 1.6% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 2.6% compared to the same period last year. Total headcount for last week was 613,000 as compared to 627,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 10.15 million head which is down 4.7% from last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. versus the prior week and up 47 lbs. from the same week last year. Beef cutout values have been trending lower since the beginning of April but have stabilized in early May. In April, it was reported that the USDA beef retail feature index fell to its lowest level in the last six weeks, but May features are starting to spur some activity. On the supply side, the Cattle on Feed report shows that the total number has increased 1.5% from a year ago which marks 7 straight months of year over year gains. Dressed weights are up versus last year with steer weights up 27 lbs. and heifers up 21 lbs. After the recent news surrounding human avian flu and dairy cattle, cattle futures are showing some weakness in the upcoming summer months. The beef complex continues to be a bit mixed as the beef industry is dealing with higher retail prices, avian flu news, and inconsistent supply which may take many months to play out.

Grinds – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from the retail and foodservice channels is on the rise, which is seasonally expected. Availability is improving as higher steer weights add trimmings to the marketplace. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are firm with spot buys testing the market higher.

Loins – The market is steady. The retail and food service business are reported to be good. The supply side continues to be the variable factor with some improvement over the last month. Trade levels moved lower in April but have firmed up.

Rounds – The market is steady to firmer. Demand is showing some improvement with additional feature activity starting to kick in. Availability varies by supplier with some excess being shown. Market levels have strong undertones.

Chucks – The market is unsettled. Demand has improved but still varies by subcategory. Cutout values on chuck rolls have receded to levels from a year ago, but clods are showing some strength. Supply varies by packer with some excess. Trade levels vary by supplier and the market is being tested.

Ribs – The market is steady to weaker. Overall demand is fair at best with some weakness due to less retail features. Feature activity tends to pick up in May so the future demand could change quickly. With the recent uptick in production, supply has improved and varies by supplier. Trade levels are being pressured lower.

PORK 

The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was down 4.2% versus the prior week and down 0.3% compared to the same week last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,379,000 as compared to 2,380,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. compared to the prior week and down 1 lb. versus the same week last year. Demand for pork is trending strong with good support from the retail and export channels. Cutout values are holding firm and outpacing last year. Export business is up 5.9% and market levels are holding at established levels. On the production side, EU farm policies restricting pork production has lifted U.S. export business to the Pacific Rim countries. Spot trading on bellies and large hams is a bit random as processors assess their future needs. Cutout values remain firm and could go higher as summer demand kicks in across the United States.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail and foodservice remains steady and tends to improve in the summer. Supply is the variable that is causing market uncertainty. Supply varies by packer and adequate inventory in public freezers is being reported. Market values have soft undertones.

Hams – The market is steady. Retail demand is fair as deli business tends to pick up in April and May. Mexico is celebrating May Day and trading has been a bit slow this week. Supply is available. Market levels are mixed due to the exchange rates between the dollar and peso.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for bone-in loins is vibrant due to retail ads. Boneless loin activity for the export channel has improved. Supply varies by packer with little excess being reported. Market levels on bone-in and boneless remain firm.

Butts – The market is steady. Retail demand is fully supported due to retail feature activity. Export business to the Pacific Rim continues to be good, which is keeping excess supply off the market. Supply is limited. The market is mostly flat.

Ribs – The market is mixed. Foodservice and retail business is adequate with solid footing going into BBQ season. Supply varies by packer. Market on spareribs is flat, back ribs have firmed up, and St. Louis ribs are trading at various levels.

CHICKEN                                                          

The market is steady to firmer. Total headcount for the week ending 4/27/2024 was 163,751,000 as compared to 165,811,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.48 lbs. as compared to 6.40 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand is starting to pick up which is seasonally expected due to Mother’s Day and Memorial Day feature activity. Overall volume on WOGS, boneless breast, and tenderloins is reported to be strong. Export demand for leg quarters and whole legs remains fully engaged. Weekly slaughter levels are reduced due to chick hatchability rates of 79% which is a record low. With the overall broiler slaughter down 2% YTD, supply is restricted. Market levels are holding even or being tested higher across most of the chicken categories.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food business is vibrant, which is expected during the May holidays. Supply remains limited for the premium sizes. Market levels are holding firm.

Tenders – The market is steady to firmer. QSR fast-food chains are the key driver of this category and seasonal business is on the rise. Supply is limited to a weekly finite number due to current slaughter levels. Market levels on jumbo tenders are moving higher while select sizes are holding even.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady to firmer. Demand for breast meat is well supported by the retail and foodservice channels and tends to remain active through Memorial Day. Supply is limited on most sizes. The market for jumbo and medium sizes is being pressured higher.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to firmer. Export and domestic demand for leg quarters remains highly active. Deboning business is active due to good thigh meat sales. Supply varies by plant. The market on leg quarters is steady. Whole legs and thigh meat are being pressured higher.

Wings – The market is steady. Wing demand continues to be well supported by foodservice further processors. Supply is available, but tight. The market is flat across all sizes.

TURKEY

The market is steady. Total headcount for the week ending 4/27/2024 was 3,592,000 as compared to 4,158,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 33.37 lbs. as compared to 31.44 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for whole birds and turkey parts is a full-steady with drums being the bright spot. The recent booking season for whole birds is reported to be fair with orders still trickling in. Demand for boneless breast is moderate and activity on bone-in parts is showing some improvement. Boneless thigh meat and two joint wings are showing some seasonal improvement. The supply side is adequate, but HPAI concerns persist. The supply side remains vigilant on bird health heading into the warmer months.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Over time, more booking orders are being inked on a consistent basis. The heavy inventory of whole birds carried over from 2023 into 2024 has affected this year’s booking season. Market levels are mostly flat and untested

Breast Meat – The market is steady. Further processor demand was expected to be robust in April but turned out to be average at best. Supply is available of both fresh and frozen raw material. The market is flat but spot sales are testing the market at higher levels.

Wings – The market is steady. Export volume for whole wings is static. Business for two-joints has picked up due to foodservice demand. Supply is available and varies by supplier. The market on whole wings and two-joints is holding even.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady to firmer. Export and domestic activity for drums is moderate to good. Thigh meat demand is vibrant due seasonal business for ground turkey. Supply is available but not in excess. The market on drums is inching higher while thigh meat is flat.

SEAFOOD

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. Demand for domestic Gulf Shrimp is still unsettled due to competitive pressure from the import market.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Tighter supplies of Black Tiger Shrimp and improved prices on White Shrimp have alleviated downward price pressure on the Black Tiger Shrimp market.

White Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Increased overseas pricing and improved movement have brought some stability back to the market. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate with moderate demand.

King Crab – The market is steady to slightly firmer. Supplies of King Crab, regardless of origin, are light with moderate to active demand and some sizes are no longer being quoted. Inventories of Russian origin product continue to decline.

Snow Crab – The market is steady. Demand is moderate and current supplies are adequate as the new season gets underway. Prices are currently steady, but some supply gaps have been reported.

Warm Water Lobster Tails – The market is firmer. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate with moderate demand.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to firmer. Prices continue to rise as stocks on allocation continue to deplete. Some suppliers report being out of stock and certain sizes are no longer being quoted. Any meaningful replacements or substitutes are still months away.

Salmon – The market is steady. The Chilean frozen fillet market is steady. Supplies are adequate with fair demand. The European fillet market is weaker. Supplies are fully adequate with quiet to fair demand.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is firmer. Light supply and increased costs overseas are being met with moderate demand.

Swai – The market is weaker. Supplies are fully adequate, and demand remains lackluster.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. The CME Block market was mixed as we progressed through the week. The CME Barrel market trended firmer as the week progressed. Both the CME Barrel and Block markets moved firmer over the prior week. Cheese production schedules are noted to be steady to stronger across the country. According to the USDA, seasonally strong milk availability in Eastern regions has allowed steady cheese production. Cheese inventories are reported to be comfortable in most regions. Cheese demand is reported to have increased in recent weeks as well as the prices for both blocks and barrels on the CME. Demand for curds, cheddar, and Italian-style cheese are among the varieties seeing increases in demand. Experts in the industry say they will have a better gauge in the upcoming weeks if the demand shift for these varieties is a seasonal trend or if buyers are reacting to recent market bullishness. Domestic demand varies from moderate to stronger. Foodservice demand is weaker while retail demand is steady. Export demand for cheese is steady to slower. Demand from international buyers ranges from steady to lighter, according to the USDA.

In Europe, milk production is strong. Favorable weather conditions and dairy expansions have allowed milk output to continue to grow in many Eastern European countries. European cheese manufacturers are utilizing the additional milk produced to run strong production schedules to stay ahead of demand. According to the USDA, May holidays are giving additional momentum to European cheese demand. The upcoming tourism season, specifically in southern Europe, is expected to continue to grow purchasing activity. Foodservice demand is comfortable while retail demand has been strong in recent weeks. According to the USDA’s latest report, cheese inventories are noted to be somewhat tight however it is suggested that production is in balance with demand. Industry contacts note that export cheese demand is steady to higher. Market tones are reported as stable.

BUTTER

The market is firmer. The butter market moved firmer as we progressed through the week and trended firmer than the prior week. Cream is readily available for butter makers throughout the country. Butter production is strong with operators running steady churning schedules for both salted and unsalted butter. According to the USDA, unsalted butter continues to be sought after by customers across the country. Manufacturers indicate butter inventories are in fair shape for the summer and fall seasons. Some butter makers are running busy production schedules and continue to build bulk butter inventory for late summer and fall needs, according to the USDA’s most recent report. Butter demand is reported as steady overall. Retail demand is steady across the nation while foodservice demand has been unchanged over recent weeks. According to the USDA’s most recent report, stakeholders say demand from Canadian buyers has been consistent though demand from international buyers is moderate.

EGGS

The market is weaker. Retail demand has been on the decline since the Easter Holiday, which is seasonally expected. Large national grocers continue to keep prices enticing for consumers. Smaller and regional grocers have seen a decrease in demand due to prices remaining at a premium. Foodservice demand is average at best. Distributors are ordering as tight as possible to follow this market which is trending lower.

Supply is available on medium and large sized shell eggs. Market levels are moving lower on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 0.8% and breaking stock inventory up 11.3% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is steady to weaker. Demand for liquid whole eggs and whites is reported to be soft as processors try to value cost in raw material in a declining market. The yolks and dried markets are being pressured lower.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Farm level milk production is steady to strengthening across most of the nation and noted to be slightly weaker in the mountain states. According to the USDA’s most recent report, contacts continue to share that farm level production is down from last year. Additionally, the most recent edition of the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s monthly report showed milk production from the 24 major states to be down 0.9 percent from March 2023. Additionally, the number of milk cows on farms was down 71,000 head from March 2023 and down 7,000 head from February 2024. Cream availability remains ample while cream demand from manufacturers is steady for all Classes. Class I demand for bottling orders is seasonally steady. Class II demand for ice cream manufacturing is increasing seasonally. Demand for all other Classes is reported as steady.

SOY OIL

The market is mixed. July futures closed higher due to excess rains in South America hampering the final stages of harvesting. Weather also interrupts exports and big importers like China. Look for US products having an effect on markets. Rain could also cause possible planting delays in the US. Early week market lows approached May 2023 record lows.

FLOUR

The flour market is mixed. The USDA’s most recent report shows the winter wheat conditions at 50% good/excellent, which is a 5% reduction from the week prior. Wheat exports are unchanged for the U.S. from March figures. Global wheat stocks are projected to be weaker this month while global production is expected to be slightly higher. Wheat prices around the world remain tied to geopolitical headlines and something to keep in mind for indicators on where the market may be heading next.

RICE

The situation with parboiled rice has not improved. Lead times are increasing to 10 weeks or more with some suppliers. Maybe some good news is the most recent harvest was better than last year. Production for parboiled rice is still having difficulties keeping up with demand.

SUGAR

The market is unsettled. Availability remains limited. This year’s U.S. sugar crop came in below expectations and this is expected to put additional strain on inventories over the coming months. Allocations and longer lead times should be expected with multiple suppliers not looking to take on new business.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending April 26, 2024**