BEEF

The market is unsettled. Total beef production for last week was up 1.0% versus the prior week and up 3.3% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 2.3% compared to the same period last year. Total headcount for last week was 619,000 as compared to 621,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 10.77 million head which is down 4.5% from last year. Live weights for last week were even at 0 lbs. versus the prior week and up 40 lbs. from the same week last year. Over the last month, beef cutout values have been slowly moving lower. This week marked the sixth consecutive week of declining values. Since the March high, the overall cutout value has dropped 6.4%. The drop in cutout values is usually a sign of weak demand. Based on the U.S. Census Estimates for beef sales in April, retail sales were fair while foodservice sales were slow. In addition, the April USDA beef retail feature index fell to its lowest level in the last six weeks. On the supply side, carcass weights are up substantially, beef imports are up 24% and exports are down 6.5%. Dressed weights are up versus last year with steer weights up 27 lbs. and heifers up 21 lbs. After the recent news surrounding human avian flu and dairy cattle, cattle futures are showing some weakness in the upcoming summer months. The beef category remains unsettled due to higher retail prices, avian flu news, and inconsistent supply which may take many months to play out.

Grinds – The market is steady. Summer seasonality is starting to kick in and demand from the retail and foodservice channels is keeping the category well supported. Availability is improving as higher steer weights add trimmings to the marketplace. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are mostly flat.

Loins – The market is mixed. Retail and food service business is fair at best. Additional supply over the last month has helped order fill rates. Trade levels are holding even.

Rounds – The market is steady to weaker. Demand was improving at the end of April but slowed down in early May. Availability varies by supplier with some excess being shown. Market levels are experiencing downward pressure.

Chucks – The market is unsettled. Demand is fair but varies by subcategory. Cutout values on chuck rolls have receded to year ago levels while activity on clods is fair. Supply varies by packer with some excess. Trade levels vary by supplier with spot business testing the market both ways.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Overall demand is improving as feature activity tends to pick up in May and seasonal business lifts the category. With the recent uptick in production, supply has improved and varies by supplier. Trade levels are being are being pressured higher.

PORK 

The market is steady to firmer. Total pork production for last week was up 1.3% versus the prior week and down 2.0% compared to the same week last year. Total headcount for last week was 2,406,000 as compared to 2,452,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were up 1 lb. compared to the prior week and even at 0 lbs. versus the same week last year. Pork demand is well supported domestically with seasonal business from the retail and foodservice channels. Cutout values continue to hold firm and are outpacing last year. Export business is up 5.9%, which is helping the market hold firm at established levels. Global production has been hampered by the EU farm policies which have been restricting pork production. Spot trading on bellies and large hams is mixed as processors assess their upcoming summer needs. Cutout values remain firm with some upward pressure as summer demand kicks in across the United States.

Bellies – The market is unsettled. Demand from retail and foodservice remains steady and tends to improve in the summer. Supply is the variable that is causing market uncertainty. Supply varies by packer and adequate inventory in public freezers is being reported. Market values have mixed undertones.

Hams – The market is mixed. Demand for bone-in green hams is good as export business to Mexico has been a good outlet. Spot trading for boneless hams has been inconsistent. Supply is available. Market levels are mostly flat but are moving based on the value of the dollar and peso.

Loins – The market is steady. Demand for bone-in loins is well supported due to retail feature activity. Combo business going to loin de-boners has been highly active. Supply varies by packer with little excess being reported. Market levels on bone-in and boneless remain firm with strong undertones.

Butts – The market is steady to firmer. Retail demand is fully supported due to retail feature activity. Foodservice business is on the rise with seasonal business. Export business to the Pacific Rim is moderate to good. Supply is limited. The market is being tested higher by spot trading.

Ribs – The market is steady to firmer. Foodservice and retail business is showing upward strength as BBQ season gets underway. Supply varies by packer. The market on spareribs and back ribs is fully supported. St. Louis ribs are unsettled with a wide variety of spot trading.

CHICKEN                                                          

The market is steady to firmer. Total headcount for the week ending 5/4/2024 was 166,246,000 as compared to 166,543,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.53 lbs. as compared to 6.35 lbs. for the same week last year. Seasonal demand for the May Holidays is giving the category an additional boost in activity. The categories of boneless breast, tenderloins, wings and leg quarters are getting a huge lift in demand while supply continues to be limited. Weekly slaughter levels are reduced due to chick hatchability rates of 79%, which is a record low. With the overall broiler slaughter down 2% YTD, supply is restricted. Market levels are holding even or being tested higher across most of the chicken categories.

WOGS – The market is steady. Retail deli and fast-food business is strong and well supported by the Mother’s Day Holiday. Supply remains limited for the premium sizes. Market levels remain flat.

Tenders – The market is firmer. Foodservice and QSR business are driving the category and seasonal business is giving additional lift. Supply is tight due to current slaughter levels, with some shortages. Market levels on jumbo and select tenders are moving higher.

Boneless Breast – The market is firmer. Demand for breast meat is extremely strong and well supported by the retail and foodservice channels. Supply is limited on all sizes. Spot trading is extremely active as buyers try to cover their needs. The market is being pressured higher on all sizes.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady to firmer. Export and domestic demand for leg quarters is moderate to good. Deboning business for thigh meat is highly active. Supply varies by plant. The market on leg quarters is steady.  Whole legs and thigh meat are being pressured higher.

Wings – The market is steady to firmer. Wing demand continues to be well supported by further processors which is creating a lot of activity on the spot market. Supply is available, but tight. The market is moving higher on all sizes.

TURKEY

The market is mixed. Total headcount for the week ending 5/4/2024 was 3,742,000 as compared to 4,049,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 32.92 lbs. as compared to 31.07 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand for whole birds is flat with some orders still trickling in for the holiday season. Demand for boneless breast has been underperforming seasonal expectations. Drums and two-joint wings appear to be the lone bright spot in the turkey category. The supply side is adequate, but HPAI concerns persist which is making things unpredictable for the summer months.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Over time, more booking orders are being inked on a consistent basis. The heavy inventory of whole birds carried over from 2023 into 2024 has affected this year’s booking season. Market levels are mostly flat and untested.

Breast Meat – The market is steady to weaker. Further processor demand was expected to be robust in May but that has not materialized. Supply is available on both fresh and frozen raw material. The market is flat but spot sales are testing the market at lower levels.

Wings – The market is steady to firmer. Export volume for whole wings is static. Business for two-joints is vibrant as smokehouse business picks up. Supply is available and varies by supplier. The market on whole wings and two-joints has some upward pressure.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady. Export and domestic activity for drums is on the rise. Thigh meat demand remains strong due seasonal business for ground turkey. Supply is available but not in excess. The market on drums and thighs is holding at established levels.

SEAFOOD

Gulf Shrimp – The market is unsettled. Demand for domestic Gulf Shrimp is still unsettled due to competitive pressure from the import market.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Tighter supplies of Black Tiger Shrimp and improved prices on White Shrimp have alleviated downward price pressure on the Black Tiger Shrimp market.

White Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Increased overseas pricing and improved movement have brought some stability back to the market. Supplies are adequate to barely adequate with moderate demand.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is steady to weaker. Current landings have exceeded expectations. The live market, having been sluggish, has affected the tail market negatively. Supplies of North American Lobster Tails are still not currently meeting demand.

Salmon – The market is steady to unsettled. The Chilean frozen fillet market is steady. Supplies are adequate with fair demand. The European fillet market is unsettled. Mixed reports show premiums, as well as discounts, out of the UK and Norway on a supplier-by-supplier basis.

Cod – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Pollock – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is firmer. Light supply and increased costs overseas are being met with moderate demand.

Swai – The market is weaker. Supplies are fully adequate, and demand remains lackluster.

DAIRY

Cheese
The market is mixed. The CME Block market moved firmer as we progressed through the week. The CME Barrel market was mixed as the week progressed. Both markets trended firmer than the prior week. Cheese production schedules are noted to be steady to stronger across the country. According to the USDA, seasonally strong milk availability in Eastern regions has allowed steady cheese production. Cheese inventories are reported to be comfortable in most regions. Cheese demand is reported to have increased in recent weeks as well as the prices for both blocks and barrels on the CME. Demand for curds, cheddar, and Italian-style cheese are among the varieties seeing increases in demand. Domestic demand is reported to be stronger. Foodservice demand is weaker while retail demand is steady. Export demand for cheese is steady to slower. Demand from international buyers is steady, according to the USDA.

In Europe, milk production is strong. Favorable weather conditions and dairy expansions have allowed milk output to continue to grow in many Eastern European countries. European cheese manufacturers are utilizing the additional milk produced to run strong production schedules to stay ahead of demand. According to the USDA, May holidays are giving additional momentum to European cheese demand. The upcoming tourism season, specifically in southern Europe, is expected to continue to grow purchasing activity. Foodservice demand is steady while retail demand is strong. Industry contacts note that export cheese demand is steady to higher. Market tones are reported as stable.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as we progressed through the week and trended weaker than the prior week. Cream is readily available for butter makers throughout the country, with cream demand being steady in the East. Butter production is strong with operators running steady churning schedules for both salted and unsalted butter. Several butter makers are running steady production schedules to continue to build bulk butter inventory for late summer and fall needs, according to the USDA’s most recent report. It is reported that many butter manufacturers have a tight availability of unsalted butter. Domestic demand for salted butter is steady and demand for unsalted butter is strong. Butter demand for both retail and foodservice are reported to be steady. Export demand is reported as moderate.

EGGS

The market is weaker. Retail demand continues to be fair. Large national grocers continue to keep prices enticing for consumers. Smaller and regional grocers have seen a decrease in demand due to prices remaining at a premium. Foodservice demand has improved. Mother’s Day has created lift in this sector as the weekend approaches.

Supply is available on medium and large sized shell eggs. Market levels are moving lower on medium sizes and large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory up 2.7% and breaking stock inventory up 4.5% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is weaker. Demand for liquid whole eggs and whites is reported to be soft as processors try to value cost in raw material in a declining market. The yolks and dried markets are being pressured lower.

FLUID MILK

The market is steady. Farm level milk production is steady across most of the nation, with some exceptions. Farm level milk outputs are reported to be flat in the Southeast and Florida and mixed in the West. According to the USDA’s most recent report, processors in the Midwest report component levels are ahead of expectations. This component strengthening of protein and milkfat during the spring season is due to an array of farm-level improvements from cow comfort to optimized feed utilization. Recent heavy storms throughout much of the Midwest brought damaging winds, heavy rains, and hailstorms, which had many farmers on alert. Class I bottling orders are reported as steady, though plant activity is expected to slow down soon due to schools in southern states moving into summer break. Cream availability remains ample while cream demand from manufacturers is steady for all Classes. Class II demand for ice cream and yogurt manufacturing is increasing seasonally. Demand for all other Classes is reported as steady.

SOY OIL

The market is mixed. July futures closed higher due to excess rains in South America hampering the final stages of harvesting. Weather also interrupts exports and big importers like China. Look for US products having an effect on markets. Rain could also cause possible planting delays in the US. Early week market lows approached May 2023 record lows.

FLOUR

The flour market is mixed. It was reported that wheat traded on both sides this week. There was better than expected wheat conditions and spring wheat planting progress which allowed prices to be scaled back. Spring wheat planting is reported to be outpacing both last year and the five-year average. Additionally, the Russian wheat crop has recently suffered from freezing temperatures and an absence of moisture. In the U.S. it was reported by the US Drought Monitor that Kansas, Wyoming, Colorado, and parts of the Dakotas had warmer than normal temperatures. Recent storms, while also showering down hail and damaging winds, contributed to the alleviation of drought in several regions.

RICE

The situation with parboiled rice has not improved. Lead times are increasing to 10 weeks or more with some suppliers. Maybe some good news is the most recent harvest was better than last year. Production for parboiled rice is still having difficulties keeping up with demand.

SUGAR

The market is unsettled. Availability remains limited. This year’s U.S. sugar crop came in below expectations and this is expected to put additional strain on inventories over the coming months. Allocations and longer lead times should be expected with multiple suppliers not looking to take on new business.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending May 3, 2024**