BEEF

The market is steady to weaker. Total beef production for last week was down 0.8% versus the prior week and down 1.4% compared to the same week last year. Year to date, total production is down 3.3% compared to the same period last year. The total headcount for last week was 563,000, as compared to 589,000 for the same week last year. Year to date, the total headcount is 16.18 million head, which is down 6.4% from last year. Live weights for last week were even versus the prior week and are up 32 lbs. from the same week last year. Trading on live cattle rallied a bit this past week to post new contract highs. August, October, and December futures were strong due to limited cattle and news about Japan becoming a bigger importer of US beef down the road. Beef production is stable on a week-to-week basis but trending well behind last year. Supply remains tight this week with shortages being reported. Consumer demand remains sluggish compared to previous years. The reduction in supply is keeping the industry in balance. Retail and distributive buyers are taking a conservative posture on future purchases in case the market adjusts. Carcass cutout values continue to move lower as demand patterns are slowing down at the mid-summer mark. The 50% tariff implemented on Brazilian imports could have a substantial impact due to US imports being up 46% YOY. End cuts continue to experience market weakness and are being pressured lower. Middle meats are trading at the lower end of established ranges due to inventory adjustments late in the month. With the high costs of beef, the spread between choice and select grades remains tight. Trade values are on a category-by-category basis and are unsettled with most categories trying to find a consistent price range.

Grinds – The market is steady to weaker. Summer demand is starting to wane a bit, which is seasonally expected. The 50% tariff on Brazilian imports is currently set to take effect on August 1st. Imported trim from Australia and Brazil is still needed to fill the void. Trade levels on 73% and 81% grinds are being pressured downward.

Loins – The market is weaker. Retail and food service volume has stalled due to higher retail and menu costs. With packers showing more spot inventory, the category has soft undertones. Supply varies by packer. Market levels have been receding since June.

Rounds – The market is steady to weaker. Grinding operations have been providing a boost in demand, but that is slowing down as the month of July progresses. Availability varies by packer and producing plant. The market has been showing weakness for about two weeks.

Chucks – The market is weaker. Retail demand is moderate and grinding operations are showing signs of becoming static. Supply varies by packer and sourcing facility. Trade levels have been inching lower in July.

Ribs – The market is steady. Demand in mid-July was soft, but the category is starting to firm up with some improved retail demand. Supply varies by packer and grade available. Trade levels have begun to move sideways

PORK

The market is steady. Total pork production for last week was down 1.1% versus the prior week and down 1.2% compared to the same week last year. The total headcount for last week was 2,342,000 compared to 2,374,000 for the same week last year. Live weights for last week were down 2 lbs. compared to the prior week and even at 0 lbs. versus the same week last year. Summer demand continues to be consistent due to pork being affordable in a high-cost protein market. Retail demand has been moderate and tends to remain strong through Labor Day. Tariffs continue to have industry participants concerned but limited information is being reported about any actual effects. At the current time, approximately 25% of U.S. production goes to the export channel. Lean hog futures hit a one-month floor and then rebounded with strength to settle higher in August and October. Current live futures are unsettled with most contracts trending lower over the last week. August futures are holding above the 50-day average, but December futures have dipped below the 50-day moving average. Market values on loins, butts, and ribs are trading within established ranges at the current time.

Bellies – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from retail and food service is moderate to good. Trading on raw bellies hit a 52-week high for the third week in a row. Frozen stocks are reported to be at the lowest level in about two years. Fresh supply is becoming more available. Trade levels continue to show strength.

Hams – The market is steady. Domestic demand for boneless hams is reported to be good with the retail and QSR channels. Export business to Mexico remains strong which is propping up the category. Supply is available. Market levels are holding firm.

Loins – The market is steady. Overall demand for bone-in loins from the retail channel is stable and tends to be strong through Labor Day. Boneless demand has gotten some improved activity from the export channel. Supply varies by packer. The market on bone-in product and boneless loins is flat.

Butts – The market is steady to weaker. Domestic demand is moderate to good but is starting to show some seasonal decline. Export demand with Mexico and the Pacific Rim is fair at best. Supply is available but still tight. Trade levels have soft undertones at the current time.

Ribs – The market is steady. Retail and food service demand is reported to be good and mostly unchanged. Supply varies by packer and plant. The markets on spareribs, St. Louis Ribs, and back ribs are moving sideways.

CHICKEN

The market is mixed. The total headcount for the week ending 7/19/2025 was 171,917,000 as compared to 168,293,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 6.51 lbs. as compared to 6.42 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand patterns are moderate and have become a bit more consistent. Most trading in the chicken category revolves around breast meat and things appear to be improving on fresh product. Spot loads of tenderloins and wings continue to trade at the high end of the range. Export demand for leg quarters and whole legs is reported to be status quo at the current time. Trading partners are now taking a cautious approach as supply continues to improve. Slaughter numbers have picked up recently and that is starting to affect trading values in multiple categories. With supply on the rise, there appears to be more inventory available for spot business and feature activity. Hatchability has finally risen above 2024 levels but is still below the 5-year average. Over the past two weeks, market levels have firmed up on the key categories.

WOGS – The market is steady to weaker. Retail deli and QSR business has slowed a bit over the last month. Supply has become more available on premium and cutting stock WOGS. Market levels are trading at the lower end of the range.

Tenders – The market is steady. Consistent demand from the QSR channel along with custom portioning is driving the category. Supply is limited. The market on select and jumbo sizes is moving sideways.

Boneless Breast – The market is steady to firmer. Demand for retail case-ready product is moderate to good. Improved demand for CVP boneless has helped stabilize the category. Overall supply has tightened recently. The market on medium and jumbo sizes has been inching higher.

Leg Quarters and Thighs – The market is steady. Domestic demand for drums and thighs is strong due to the grilling season. Export business on whole legs is a full steady. Supply on thigh meat is showing some excess while bone-in parts continue to be tight. Market on thigh meat is soft while bone-in drums are holding firm.

Wings – The market is steady to firmer. Demand from the food service channel has been good in July and further processors are starting to replenish inventories. Supply has tightened over the last month. The market is being pressured higher on all sizes.

TURKEY

The market is steady to firmer. The total headcount for the week ending 7/19/2025 was 4,075,000, as compared to 3,779,000 for the same week last year. The average weight for last week was 30.97 lbs. as compared to 31.16 lbs. for the same week last year. Demand patterns, both domestically and abroad, remain adequate to keep the supply side in a sold-up position. Whole birds, back-half parts, and boneless breasts continue to be highly sought after, with limited supply being shown. Due to the respiratory virus reported earlier this year, bird weights are lower than expected and the overall supply is being squeezed. Slaughter data shows the number of turkeys processed year to date is down about 6% from last year. With recent news of plant closures, additional supply is not on the horizon anytime soon. Due to limited supply, asking prices are on the rise for boneless breast, drums, and wings. Market levels across most categories continue to trade at the higher end of established ranges.

Whole Birds – The market is steady. Very few spot transactions are being reported. Due to tight supply and bird weight issues, order fulfillment is being challenged. Product availability is hard to find. Most suppliers are communicating that they are sold out until further notice. Market levels on spot loads are catching a premium.

Breast Meat – The market is steady. Seasonal demand from the retail deli and QSR channels is moderate to very good. Fresh and frozen supply is scarce on the spot market. Market levels are a full-steady.

Wings – The market is steady. Export business on whole wings is fair. Domestic volume on two-joint wings is adequate. Supply is tight due to limited weekly slaughter. The market is flat on Tom-sized wings.

Drums and Thigh Meat – The market is steady. Export demand for drums remains stable. Domestic demand for thigh meat has balanced out over the last month. Supply is barely adequate on parts and thigh meat. The market is holding even on drums and thigh meat.

SEAFOOD

White Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone.

Black Tiger Shrimp – The market is firmer. Demand is moderate to good and pricing levels are firmer. Availability is tight on the premium sizes.

Gulf Shrimp – The market is steady to firmer. Supplies are barely adequate to adequate while maintaining a firm undertone.

North American Lobster Tails – The market is mixed. The current market for small to mid-size tails and meat products remained stable, likely supported by renewed demand. In contrast, larger tails face ongoing challenges, with additional discounts reflecting continued buyer preference for smaller sizes.

Salmon – The market is unsettled. Farmed salmon is unsettled with pricing influenced by sellers’ supply positions. There are reports of offers above and below the current range. The West Coast whole fish market is unsettled. Smaller sizes are seeing competitive pressure, while supplies of larger sizes are described as barely adequate with moderate demand. Europe is reporting a firmer market. Norway and Scotland are reporting an unsettled market. There are reports of offers both above and below the range. The Chilean whole fish market is unsettled. Demand is moderate to fair and there are reports of offers both above and below current levels.

Cod – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is moderate, while supplies have tightened.

Flounder – The market is steady and mostly unchanged.

Haddock – The market is firmer. There is a steady to firm undertone in the market. Demand is moderate, while supplies have tightened.

Pollock – The market is firmer. Supplies are adequate with moderate demand.

Tilapia – The market is unsettled. There are reports of slow demand, which has the potential to create long inventory positions.

Swai – The market is steady to firmer.

DAIRY

CHEESE

The market is firmer. Both the CME Block and Barrel markets moved slightly firmer as the week progressed. Both markets trended firmer prior than the week. In the East, contacts note cheese production is steady. In the Midwest, milder temperatures in recent weeks have contributed to an uptick in milk outputs. Downtime at some plants in the region are contributing to lighter regional cheese output. Demand for cheese curds is strong. In the West, cheese production is steady. Some cheesemakers note that declining seasonal milk outputs is making it difficult to obtain Class III milk to meet production needs. Strong export demand is keeping inventories for some varieties of cheese tighter than others. Retail demand for cheese is steady while foodservice demand for cheese is lighter. Prices for U.S. cheese are strong on the international market. Export cheese demand is strong.

European milk production is decreasing week-over-week. Declining milk supplies due to the summer heat is not impacting the balance between supply and demand. Stakeholders continue to monitor new cases of lumpy skin disease in France and Italy, though impacts to milk production are not being seen. Semi-hard cheeses from Europe are strong. According to the USDA, the strong Euro is slowing exports of cheese from Europe.

BUTTER

The market is weaker. The butter market moved weaker as the week progressed and trended weaker than the prior week. As CME butter prices moved lower, butter sales activity appears to be stable. In the East, cream use for other commodities is growing. Butter churns are not running at full capacity in the region. Spot loads of cream are noted to be lackluster. In the Central region, milk components are declining. Contacts in the upper Midwest say mild temperatures in recent weeks are improving cow comfort. As such, a recent uptick in milk outputs and higher components have been recorded. Ice cream makers in the region are running busy production schedules and purchasing large volumes of cream. Butter makers in the region note spot cream inventories are shrinking. In the West, declining milk outputs are contributing to reduced cream production. Strong demand in the region has reduced spot availability. Retail demand for butter is steady. Foodservice butter demand is light. Inventories for both bulk and consumer packaged butter are stable. Stakeholders note that domestic demand is steady across all regions, according to the USDA’s most recent report. Prices for US butter are contributing to strong export demand. Export butter demand is strong.

EGGS

The market is mixed. Retail demand improved by midweek and is now generally viewed as solid. Most promotions met expectations, with only a few falling short. Shelf demand is normalizing to seasonal levels after strong July performance. Although prices remain below earlier-year peaks, they are no longer driving heightened consumer activity. Food service demand is tracking similarly, with activity in coastal and urban tourist areas easing back to seasonal norms. QSR movement remains steady, though limited promotions are keeping buyer urgency subdued.

Market levels are moving lower on medium sizes and moving higher on large sizes. National weekly reports show shell egg inventory down 0.5% and breaking stock inventory up 3.1% over last week.

Demand in the egg products category is weaker. Liquid whites are being sourced below quoted levels on the open market. Liquid yolks remain steady and there are reports of limited spot market activity. In the dried market, demand for yolks and whites is soft and the market has weak undertones.

FLUID MILK

The market is weaker. As rising temperatures across the country, most regions are seeing decreases in milk volumes from the farm level. Milk components are declining but are reported to be higher than this time last year. In the East, milk production is low due to seasonal temperature increases affecting cow comfort. That said, milk components are higher than anticipated, leaving contacts an abundance of fat available for processing. In the Northeast, Class III production is steady to stronger. In the Midwest, contacts note that milder weather over the past few weeks has improved milk output. In most other parts of the Central region, output continues to seasonally decline. In California, high summer temperatures are contributing to declining milk production week-over-week. In the Pacific Northwest, milk volumes are falling below expectations for this point in the year. Cream production is down across the Western region. Despite this, milk volumes in the region are sufficient to meet current production needs.

Class I milk production is weaker. Contacts anticipate increased production at the end of July as some schools ramp up for the upcoming school year. Class II milk production is strong. As ice cream makers near the peak of summer, production is strong. Spot loads of cream are available for ice cream manufacturers. Class III production is steady to strong. Demand for condensed skim milk for cheese production is strong. Demand for all Classes is strong.

OIL

Soy Oil – The Market is mixed. Soybean oil continues to climb higher, despite weakness in energy and a slight reversal in oil share with short covering in meal. The complex continues to show mixed price action given the slight retraction in bean ratings balanced by favorable weather conditions. New weather forecasts have weighed on soybean complex prices throughout the week. Current forecasts indicate much higher temperatures and drier conditions for the next 11-14 days. There are reports of China signing another deal with Argentina to buy soybean meal, marking the second deal since Beijing approved the flow in 2019. The market continues to look for a trade resolution with China and Brazil due it its large impact on bean exports.

Canola Oil – The Canola seed market is mixed. The Canola crop is planted and in generally good shape. The crop ultimately depends on how the weather turns in July, though as of now it looks to be in decent shape. This week Australia is close to finalizing a new agreement to reopen the canola exports to China. Exporting had been shut down since 2020 due to phytosanitary requirements, which are aiming to reduce the spread of blackleg disease. China is expected to allow five Australian cargoes on a trial basis. Australia is the world’s second largest Canola producer.

Palm Oil – BMD Palm oil continued to trade on a firm note, after MPOA reported July production improving by 11% versus the same period in June. On the Indonesia front, comments by the energy minister of Indonesia alluded to a slower rollout than estimated. Continued challenges and the May data showed Indonesian palm oil stocks contracting 4.27% with lower output and a surge in exports. Further positive news for Indonesia: The US officially announced a 19% tariff on Indonesian imports, a reduction from the previous 32%, leaving the door open for further reduction on commodities that are not naturally produced in the US.

COCOA

The cocoa market is unsettled. Supply issues for cocoa have been exacerbated by long lasting structural problems within the industry. Price increases on cocoa and any products produced with cocoa should be expected throughout the year.

COCONUT

The coconut market is unsettled. Record-high coconut costs continue to impact the market. Significant increases in demand from China and increasing demand from Egypt have contributed to higher prices. According to the United Coconut Association of the Philippines, there have been government initiatives in conjunction with the Philippine Coconut Authority to address rising demand and costs in the market. Price increases on coconuts and any products produced using coconuts should be expected as the year progresses.

COFFEE

The coffee market is mixed. According to the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service, projection for world coffee production is expected to increase when compared to year-over-year outputs. In Brazil, the coffee harvest is underway and expected to weigh on current coffee prices. A secondary harvest of Robusta coffee is underway in Vietnam. According to the USDA’s most recent report, the forecast for Brazil’s coffee production rose by .5% year-over-year. In Vietnam, the coffee output projections rose by 6.9% year-over-year. The outlook for abundant coffee supplies is beginning to undercut prices.

HONEY

The honey market is unsettled. Demand for organic honey continues to grow while only three countries, Brazil, Uruguay and India, supply over 95% of organic honey product. Between 30-40% of organic honey is consumed by the retail channel. Brazil has increased their supply to meet demand. Supply tightness is being reported from Uruguay thus supporting reduced imports year to date. The honey industry continues to react to anti-dumping activity as well as tariff fluctuations. Price increases on organic honey should be expected throughout the year.

IMPORTED PINEAPPLE

Indonesia – Total raw material volume for 2025 is expected to align with 2024 at approximately 590K MT. The harvest is weighted towards the second half of the year, with only 40% of total volume available in the first six months. Supplies will be tighter early in the year, especially for choice-grade products.

Thailand – The 2024 harvest was one of the lowest in decades, totaling 692K MT, a 4% decline from 2023. Production in 2025 is forecasted to improve to 850K MT, but this remains below the six-year average of 930K MT. Due to ongoing supply constraints, market conditions are expected to remain firm.

Overall Market Outlook – From Indonesia, raw material volumes are forecast to remain lower through Q3 2025. While Thailand’s production is forecast to increase, the overall market remains constrained. Pricing is anticipated to stay firm, with potential fluctuations depending on demand and crop performance. Pack season is usually October – January for most packers.

SPICES

Dried Garlic – US garlic acreage for the 2025 crop is down 7-10% compared to 2024. Additionally, crop emergence has slowed due to recent weather variability, potentially delaying harvest by one-to-two weeks. Central and Southern CA crops have matured with water cut completely. Arizona received 2–4 inches of rain in early June. There is potential yield risk. Current garlic inventories are sufficient to meet regular domestic demand for most fractions except granulated, which have been in exceedingly high demand due to a slowdown in offshore supplies.

Like the US onion market, US garlic growers face rising costs for labor, water, and other inputs, which are reflected in current market pricing. Tighter supplies are anticipated for minced and granulated. However, the availability of powder, ground, and other non-restricted granulated garlic is expected to be adequate.

Dried Onion – US onion acreage for dehydration is down 15-20% compared to 2024. This reduction is due to higher-than-normal carry-in inventories at the beginning of the year, stable demand, and increased carrying costs. Early California harvests experienced weather variability, leading to a two-to-three-week delay. The onion crop harvest began around mid-June 2025. Initial yield reports from California indicated a 3-5% yield decline, particularly in the Central Valley region due to unseasonal rains and potential onset of foliar disease. It’s too early for a definitive crop prediction, but this trend merits monitoring.

In this inflationary environment, growers face rising costs for labor (4-6% increase), fuel, freight, and utilities (3-5% increase). Tighter supplies are expected for piece fractions, especially large chopped, chopped, and blends. The availability of powder and minced onions is expected to be adequate to meet normal demand.

SUGAR

Domestic Cane Sugar – The market is mixed. According to the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, Cane sugar production is projected at 13.808 million STRV (short tons raw value), a 34,445 STRV increase. Higher beginning stocks and a slight increase in imports offset the decreased production. Cane sugar growers in Florida and Louisiana are reporting good crops. With the higher carryover for July, Florida is slightly decreasing the projections for processing for the month.

Domestic Beet Sugar – The July WASDE report indicates production at 5.097 million STRV reduced by 53,073 from last month on a lower area planted and reported harvest yield.

Mexico’s sugar projections are increased slightly because of changes in both production and export numbers for the previous year. Exports estimate a modest increase in global exports but to the United States are down by almost 197 MT.

WHEAT

The wheat market is mixed. According to the July, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) from the USDA, the outlook for 2025 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised as wheat production is up from last month, which is offsetting the reduced harvest area. Exports have also been raised. The July 2025 global wheat outlook is for reduced supplies, higher consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks for multiple countries. Production estimates have been lowered for Canada, Ukraine and Iran which is offsetting higher production from Kazakhstan, the European Union, Pakistan, and Russia. Global consumption estimates were raised on higher feed and residual use for Kazakhstan and Thailand. Projected 2025 global ending stocks are reduced based on reductions for Canada and the European Union. World trade is projected to be lowered based on reduced exports for the European Union and Ukraine which is partially offset by higher exports from Russia and the United States.

**Graphs represent data for the week ending July 18 2025**